What Connects Q4 Festive Shoppers Across the Globe?

Festive shoppers don’t just show up. They plan, compare, and buy across a rush of global moments. From Diwali in India to Black Friday/Cyber Monday in the US/UK, Harbolnas in Indonesia, and Christmas worldwide, the season concentrates months of intent into a few decisive weeks.

In our latest Performance+ “Seize The Moment” webinar on Building Year End Funnel, our expert panel consisting Bobbie Gersbach, Global Planning Director; Ian Simpson, Director of Strategy and Innovation at Sensor Tower; and Stephanie Pilon, Chief Marketing Officer at Singular distills key insights on how demand builds, what actually moves people to buy, and how to plan creative, measurement, and budgets so media works harder during peak season.

Watch the full recording here.

The Size of the Prize

From Diwali in India to Christmas in the UK and BFCM in the US, these global shopping moments drive billions in consumer spending every year presenting massive opportunities for brands to capture attention and sales.

• $50.6B was the estimated revenue generated in India during 2024 Diwali, making it the highest-grossing festive event of the year.
• $112.6B is the projected total for UK retail sales (online and offline) during the 2024 Christmas season, making the UK the biggest festive spender.
• $30B+ was forecasted for total e-commerce revenue generated across Thanksgiving weekend 2024, including both Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
• $2B in transactions during the 2024 Harbolnas with local products dominating the sales.

At its core, marketing success still comes down to fundamentals. Knowing your audience, choosing the right channels, crafting the right message, and timing it well. Winning in peak moments means showing up early, staying relevant throughout, and maximizing performance when the surge hits. Simply knowing it’s a massive sales period isn’t enough; success comes from how well you prepare and execute against that reality.

Factors Connecting Shoppers All Over

1. Shoppers start early: Research and wish-listing begin weeks ahead of the main event. Festive readiness often begins months ahead. Shoppers who start early are more deliberate and brands that engage them sooner capture greater share of wallet. So, your warm-up and priming campaigns need to start sooner than you think.

• United States shoppers were the most prepared gift-buyers, with nearly 70% sharing that they have already thought about which gifts to get for their loved ones in 2024
• Shoppers’ festive readiness starts as early as September in the US, meaning brands that launch campaigns early can capture intent before the competition.

2. Value first, defined locally: According to Statista,

• 56% of holiday shoppers prioritized Value in the US in 2024 and recommendations from family and friends played a key role in purchase decisions.
• 48% of holiday shoppers prioritized Value in UK in 2024 and shoppers were drawn to the best deals, low prices, free shipping, and big discounts.
• 46% of Holiday shoppers prioritized Value/Budget in India in 2024 and product quality took center stage.

“Value” shifts by market: best deals & free shipping in the UK, quality & service in India, and trust & recommendations in the US, but a clear value story always wins.

3. Trust & ease decide the final click: Great offers still fail if the journey breaks. UX frictions and fees drive cart abandonment (a known issue in parts of SEA). Know the experience where your product is purchased, not just your owned channels.

4. Highly digital & discovery driven: Festive shoppers are highly digital and discovery-driven actively engaging on YouTube, TikTok, and live shopping rather than passively browsing.

• 90% of Festive shoppers turn to YouTube as a key part of their pre-purchase research in India. India’s e-commerce is booming, led by Tier 2+ cities with a 13% spending rise.
• 43% of Gen Z starts their product discovery on TikTok, making it a fast-growing platform for festive inspiration and exploration.
• 30% Conversion rates from live shopping in Indonesia highlight how engaged shoppers are with interactive trend

5. Multi-Touchpoint Journeys: Shoppers bounce across YouTube, TikTok, search, live shopping, and retail apps, using 8+ touchpoints on the way to purchase. Show up consistently, match the moment, and make it seamless to act.

6. FOMO is real: Flash sales, early-bird perks, and exclusivity pull even “planned shoppers” into impulse mode. Lean into timed offers, bundles, and limited drops—especially near the event window.

• 52% Indonesian consumers are open to exploring new brands during Harbolnas.
• 42% Consumers who identify as planned shoppers become impulsive.

The Global Festive Calendar

• Diwali (India, Oct 20): Searches kick off as early as August, with peak activity two to three weeks out. Shoppers look beyond gifting, diving into fashion, jewelry, home décor, and even large-ticket items.
• BFCM (US/UK, Nov 28): Discovery starts by October, ramping up during Thanksgiving week. Tech, fast delivery, and deal comparisons dominate the conversation.
• Harbolnas (Indonesia, Dec 12): Momentum builds from late November, with peak sales hitting Dec 11–13. Discounts, free shipping, and brand/model searches drive consumer behavior.
• Christmas & New Year (Global, Dec 25): Shopping begins as early as September, but activity peaks through November and December. From gifts and recipes to party prep, this season covers the widest range of categories.

Creative That Actually Moves the Needle

• Interactive & Playable Ads: Deliver up to 20× more installs, 7× higher conversions, and +50% engagement vs static/video. By tapping into play-and-reward psychology, they capture deeper attention, drive stronger recall, and boost ROAS. While they originated in gaming, adoption is quickly spreading to entertainment, finance, and lifestyle categories. Watch CTR inflation; judge on post-click quality and LTV.

• UGC-Style Video: With 152% higher impression-to-install conversions, UGC-style ads stand out for their authenticity and relatability. They’re especially powerful in e-commerce, utilities, and social apps, where trust is crucial in a cluttered Q4 marketplace. Brands are doubling down on UGC, with spend growing at double digits year-over-year, peaking during Q4.

Interactive and authentic formats aren’t just creative choices, they’re performance drivers and the brands leaning into them now are the ones winning attention and conversions during the most competitive shopping season.

Measure ROI at the Creative Level

For marketers, proving the value of creative isn’t just about aesthetics, it’s about connecting every asset directly to business outcomes like ROI and lifetime value (LTV).

• Creative Data Ingestion: Modern tools can capture images, videos, copy, and placements from ad networks. By ensuring every asset is consistently tagged and tracked, brands eliminate guesswork and build a reliable creative data pipeline.
• Creative-Level Attribution: Installs, purchases, and subscriptions can be traced back to the exact ad creative that drove them. This provides a crystal-clear view of which assets perform, enabling smarter creative decisions and optimization.
• ROI & LTV Calculation: By combining spend, revenue, and engagement data, marketers can finally measure ROI and LTV at the creative level. This transforms creative from a “soft” metric into a tangible growth driver.

Measurement with OneView: Proving You’re Not Just Riding the Wave

Events create natural uplift, but M+C Saatchi OneView quantifies whether media is genuinely amplifying it or just riding the wave. With M+C Saatchi OneView, we saw:

• +40% organic uplift from the event itself
• +30% paid media amplification on top
• Total +70% vs baseline and a clear view of when to up-weight, when to hold back, and how to plan smarter year-on-year

We also see media effectiveness stretch during events.

Budget & Channel Mix: Follow the Signals

Being present isn’t enough. With consumers hit by advertising across multiple channels and formats, the challenge is to cut through the noise. That could mean you need to start early, lean on creatives that truly differentiates, or increase frequency to build brand salience. Ultimately, success comes from balancing incrementality, reaching new customers in the shopping moment, and with brand-building that ensures you stay top of mind when purchase decisions are made.

AI Is Changing How People Shop (and How We Plan)

• AI as an enabler: AI is no longer just a buzzword. It’s already streamlining tasks like tagging, reporting, and data analysis. By automating the repetitive, it frees marketers to focus on strategy and creative impact.
• Shopping disruption: The 2025 holiday season will see early experiments with AI-powered shopping assistants. By 2026–27, these agents will be mainstream, guiding or even completing purchases on behalf of consumers.
• Creative rethink: Traditional ads designed to catch human attention won’t work the same way when AI agents are “deciding” and success will depend on structured, optimized product data that AI systems can easily read and rank.
• New discipline emerging: Just as SEO became essential in the search era, “LLM optimization” will define the AI era. Brands will need to learn how to surface in AI-driven recommendations to stay competitive.

To discuss about festive marketing or how our specialist teams enable clients to grow, please don’t hesitate to contact us.